Picks, Picks, and More Picks: Scouting the Field at the U.S. Open

Jordan Spieth hits form the first tee during a practice round for the 2015 U.S. Open at Chambers Bay in University Place, Wash. on Tuesday, June 16, 2015.  (Copyright USGA/J.D. Cuban)
Jordan Spieth hits form the first tee during a practice round for the 2015 U.S. Open at Chambers Bay in University Place, Wash. on Tuesday, June 16, 2015. (Copyright USGA/J.D. Cuban)
There are few tougher feats in golf than winning a U.S. Open. It takes one part driving ability (not just long, but straight, too), one part putting, and a whole lot of mental fortitude. When birdies are scarce, double bogeys are common, and par is a good score, the ability to stay cool under pressure is key.
That’s why when picking a U.S. Open champion, it’s best to look for the “boring” players, the ones who fly below the radar, logging consistent top-10 and top-25 finishes, but without the big up-and-down swings of the more hotheaded or risk-taking stars (sorry, Phil).
Kaymer, Rose, Simpson, McIlroy, McDowell, Glover, Woods, Cabrera, Ogilvy, Campbell — those are your last 10 U.S. Open champions. Besides Tiger and Martin Kaymer, not a single one of them had ever won a major before taking their U.S. Open crown — instead, they had simply been consistent performers, all well-known to golf fans, but yet to break through on the biggest stage.
This week’s U.S. Open promises to be one of the most significant mental challenges yet for the game’s pros — a course that is being described as “St. Andrews with elevation changes,” where rock-solid fairways, super-slick greens and endless seas of sand will play mind tricks with players as they enter their backswing. Should they try to land the ball near the pin, or aim for the backstop? Can they cut the corner of the bunker, or should they play it safe and leave a longer approach. We’ll be particularly interested to see how the players play No. 7 (deciding whether to try and carry the bunker to the right, or bail out left), No. 9 (which will change from a massive downhill shot to a slightly uphill shot from day to day), No.s 10, 12 and 16 (all of which could be played as driveable par-4s on certain days), No. 14 (where long players could try to cut the bunker to the left, while shorter ones will have to play to the right) and No. 18, particularly when it’s a par-4.
It’s going to be an incredible week, and it’s going to produce an incredible champion. With that said, we canvassed our staff to get their picks. We also want to hear from you — log on to our Facebook page and let us know who you’re picking, and a winning score. We’ll send the winner a cool CG prize pack for your efforts.
So, who’s it going to be?
Simon Dubiel, CG Tournament Director — Jason Day
He has knocked on the door several times at majors, so he has paid his dues. It sounds like he is excited about the course and the setup, which will be key this weekend. Those that embrace it will have a much better shot than those that are busy complaining. Plus, after watching the celebration with Rickie Fowler and his girlfriend at The Players, who wouldn’t want to see the same from Day and his better half?
Johnny Carey, CG Sales — Jordan Spieth
My heart wants Tiger or Phil to win, but my head says it will be Jordan Spieth. In my opinion, as well as others, it will come down to putting on these huge greens, and whoever is the most efficient at lagging. Spieth is the best and most clutch putter currently on the Tour, so I have to pick him.
Steve Kelley, CG Contributor — Geoff Ogilvy
This course sets up perfectly for an Australian player. They play on these type courses all the time at home. For the same reason, keep an eye on Marc Leishman.
Kirk Tourtillotte, CG Vice President — Phil Mickelson
I’m picking Phil Mickelson to win his first US Open and complete his career Grand Slam. It’s a sentimental pick.
Tony Dear, CG Contributor — Jordan Spieth
To win the Masters wire-to-wire with 28 birdies shows a really incredible combination of nerve and talent. Add that to some experience of the course, and Michael Greller’s local knowledge, and he seems almost irresistible.
Dick Stephens, Publisher — Bill Haas
I’m going to pick a dark horse and go with Bill Haas. He has an ability to pick the ball clean and is known as a great ball striker. Also, his game out of the sand is extraordinary when he’s hot. That’s gonna come in handy this week.
Brian Beaky, Editor — Henrik Stenson
If I had to put $100 on it, I’d go with Spieth — his game is in great shape, he has more experience on the course than just about anyone in the field, and he has a massive advantage in Michael Greller. But since two of my compatriots have already taken Spieth, I’ll go with my second choice and back Henrik Stenson. Throughout the week, there’s been a consistent theme to player interviews — the player who wins this tournament will be a long hitter with a great putter. A quick filter of PGA TOUR stats turns up just a handful of players who excel at both, and Stenson is high on that list. He’s come close at majors before — including nine top-10s and a fourth-place finish at Pinehurst last year — and was one of the very first pros to scout Chambers, making a site visit in April.


DickStephnes-characterDICK’S PICKS: COURAGE, CADDIES AND CONFIDENCE MAY RULE DAY ONE

By Dick Stephens, CG Publisher
(Editor’s Note: In addition, here’s the first installment of “Dick’s Picks” — a regular feature we’ll post throughout the week, looking ahead to five players you should keep an eye on in tomorrow’s round.)
With so many great choices to consider for players to watch, my top 5 players to watch tomorrow are based on my gut, knowledge of the course and what I’ve witnessed down here at Chambers Bay. I can clearly see the players are without a doubt grasping at information on this place. Frankly, it’s odd to write this and see these guys still looking for clues. But, these are the best in the world and we will see magical moments. Only the toughest mentally can string four rounds together here.
PHIL MICKELSON – I can feel the Seattle/Tacoma fans want to pull for him and help place this ring he’s missing on his hand. I also saw him keep his driver in his bag all day yesterday and hit high hybrids off the tee, when others are hitting driver too far and finding trouble. I see Phil posting a smart number Thursday and anything within four strokes is great for him. His wedges will be such a key to his success. He’s the man there.
RICKIE FOWLER – He looks like the Chambers logo – a sail FULL of wind and loaded to surge forward. His confidence is high, he’s playing great and he’s fit as a fiddle. When golfers are falling by the wayside on day one from shots and mental errors, he seems to be one that could apply early pressure. His short game MUST be in tow, though. Young fans here LOVE him. The future of the game rests on guys like Fowler. His love of dirt bikes and jumping hills actually might give him an edge. Funny, right? But this place looks like a bike track.
BILL HAAS – Your first reaction is … really? No one talks about Haas. But, he has a game and ball-striking skill that is unique. He picks the ball cleaner than more than 75 percent of these players and, after watching him practice mastering low, spinning chips yesterday, I feel he’s a formidable option to show well. He’s faced impossible odds before in huge situations and players regard him as a guy that can turn tough shots on their head. I saw him master no. 17 yesterday – I was in awe.
JORDAN SPIETH – The first reason I have him as a Thursday player to watch is not because of is amazingness. It’s because of Michael Greller. On a course where caddies and players are trying to build a decoder ring, Greller HAS one. With hundreds of loops out there, his knowledge is the HIGHEST of anyone there, bar none. Jordan’s maturity is coming of age and he needs to listen to Greller on day one and post a solid score.
IAN POULTER – Mental tough guy. Defiant. Spirited. Clutch putter. This man has links golf running through his veins. Having played a couple dozen top-100 tracks, I am always reminded how hard links golf is. The Euros have a leg up in the first two rounds and Poulter is a courageous putter and has the heart of a lion. I like his short game and the approaches at holes 1, 8, 17 and 18 will put players to the test. He played these better than most in practice.
I don’t expect these guys to be 1-5 after tomorrow, but I do see them placing themselves in contention. This place is so different, though, that I am excited to see if my hunches are close to the mark. I am committed to sharing with you all the best I can offer out here. Enjoy and TAKE IT EASY.

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